A - a threat to regional stability in the Gulf region
There is no doubt that Iran's possession of nuclear weapons would affect the stability of the Gulf region from two angles
First: Consecration of the imbalance in the balance of power, as the geopolitical realities indicate that force the current Iranian if they want to go, the track will be north or east, In the Middle There are major Asian nuclear powers \ "India, Pakistan, China \", in the north there is Russia, and thus the potential for expansion of Iran is available in the West, The following table shows the extent of imbalance in the weapon capabilities of the six Gulf countries, compared to Iranian armaments.
Table shows the imbalance in the balance of military power between Iran and the six Gulf states
State the number of troops and tanks into surface to air missiles and fighter aircraft naval units Patriot defense budget bln submarines and surface units
Saudi Arabia
201 thousand of them 75 thousand national guard
900 or 315 of them - er 2 Abrams
33 battery about half 1 - Hawk
294, 174 of them F - 15
34
--
20
27.2
Emirates
50500
516, including 360 of the model of Ekk
8 including 3 batteries Hawk
106
18
--
--
Oman
41700
153
50
40
13
--
--
2.4
Kuwait
15500
290 of them 218 m -1 er 2 Abrams
10 batteries of Hawk 4
81 of 40 FA-18
10
--
5
3.3
Country
12,300
30
75 Sam, 12 surface-air stinger
18
7
--
--
1.5
Bahrain
11,000
140
Two batteries
F-34, 22 - 16
11 including Kerkatp
--
--
0,315
Iraq
Suffering Iraqi conventional forces and armaments after Saddam's neglect, and there are plans to establish an army of 30 thousand soldiers, the current force is about 10 thousand soldiers focused on internal security
Iran
540,600
1565
76 battery including one hook and dragged some of them
306
59 of 10 Hudonj and 40 Bujamr
3 of the Clio model
--
9.1
In addition to this variation Gulf armies suffering from a lack of individuals willing to serve in the armed forces or the commitment to military life, and they generally lack the experience of combat, at a time when Iran announced that it conducted a missile test advanced (Shahab-3) in July 2005, as well as the Declaration Iranian Ministry of Defense of its intention to develop two other types of high-tech missiles and are the Shihab-4 (3000 km) and Shahab-5 (5000 km), in addition to the studies referred to in modern military that Iran is now producing more than 80 percent of their heavy weapons.
The second is: the possibility of military conflict between Iran and the nuclear issue, the parties concerned are reflected effects on the region, especially that this alternative is not excluded from the strategies the United States on the nuclear issue, as underscored by President Bush to say \ "do not rule out a military option to settle the nuclear issue Iran \ ", and then, Iran's response could take many forms, including that Iran, through Hezbollah's indiscriminate ling of Israel, which could lead to an escalation of violence in Israel and neighboring countries (Syria and Lebanon). On the other hand, you might strike Iran air bases and naval vessels in the U.S. Gulf Arab states through the use of surface - land, which threatens to turn the possibility that the expected direct confrontation between Iran and the United States into a regional war many consequences including the possibility that Iran close the Strait of of Hormuz, which impedes the flow of Gulf oil to Western countries and the United States, which was confirmed thanks to God Atta Zade Vice Chairman of the Energy Committee in the Iranian parliament that \ "if sanctions are imposed on Iran in a manner threatening its national interests, it will not allow the export of oil from the region, as well as they might targeting of foreign vessels which would impact on the movement of shipping in the Gulf, and then the stability of oil markets, which would adversely affect the economies of the GCC, which are mainly dependent on oil as an important source of national income. Third, Iran could target of interest America in the region, whether companies or factories or even individuals.
B - the difficulty of reaching a common formula for Gulf security
Ps effects important for Iran to possess nuclear weapons, the difficulty of reaching a common formula for the security of the Gulf, where it is the issue of ious issues in relations with Iran - the Gulf, Iran has always been demanding to have a role in the security arrangements for the region from the security of the Gulf is the responsibility of the state, which is inconsistent with the vision of the six countries that issue, which sees the foreign presence is an important factor to ensure their security, and in light of this difference have been several formulas for the security of the Gulf from Iran, as well as the reported centers specialized in this regard, namely that Iran's insistence on the possession of arms nuclear would hamper the possibility of a future version of security to the security of the Gulf for a number of considerations
First: the possibility of a nuclear arms race not only in the Gulf, but in the whole Arab region, where Arab countries will work hard to enter the nuclear club, which is highlighted by the Yushkavir German Foreign Minister said \ "that the nuclear weapons-armed Iran would be is like (nightmare) to the Middle East, already suffering from a lack of security and stability \ ", which is the same meaning as confirmed by the Emir of Qatar said: \" Our region is covered by the danger if we take into account the existence of two nuclear bombs on the outskirts of the region, India and Pakistan, which have become equal in nuclear power, in addition to the presence of the Iranian nuclear program, and then other parties will not stand idly by what is happening
Second: that the GCC countries in their quest to establish a joint security formula in the Gulf must be given international guarantees of binding international community on the confidence-building measures with the regional parties, including Iran, and the first of these requirements are not threatened the security of those States, both possessing nuclear weapons or other
Third: Iran's possession of nuclear weapons would undermine all the steps being made by both sides, Iran and the Gulf aimed at promoting good-neighborliness and mutual trust and benefit, leading to a regional security system based on several grounds, at the top renounce the use of force and to resolve all outstanding issues through dialogue and negotiation, and thus Iran's possession of nuclear weapons represents the \ "Rose \" in relations already strained as a result the insistence on the occupation of three UAE islands, and to consider the issue internally Iranian affair, despite being one of the most important issues on the agenda of the fixed GCC annual summit
C - direct environmental impacts
Is the GCC countries at the forefront of which will be damaged by direct n Iranian nuclear weapons, where the Bushehr reactor, which supplies one of the main facilities of the Iranian nuclear project, 280 kilometers from Kuwait City and the reactor depends mainly on the technologies, both imported from Russia, which do not have elements of nuclear safety secured. Hence, in a Western ban on the machines and equipment used in the nuclear industry, Iran may seek to accomplish and complete its nuclear weapons depending on the machines less secure nuclear weapons, thus becoming the Gulf states in the range of risk if the leak occurred. There is historical evidence of such hazards, including the Chernobyl accident in 1986. On the other hand, Iran is in trying to get rid of nuclear waste could move to get rid of heavy water in the Gulf, which would create a pollution crisis all the countries of the region resulting from the leakage of radioactive nuclear material in the waters of the Gulf and the effects persist for decades.
D - trouble Gulf states in case of war
This is one of the main effect of the repercussions of Iran's possession of nuclear weapons, where all the signs are that the United States would not retreat from the use of force against any potential nuclear power, and in this regard, he noted the report of the Washington Institute for Near East Studies, published with the inauguration of President Bush his second term, \ "he If a nation has against the United States to obtain weapons of mass destruction, particularly nuclear weapons, the danger would be substantial and pivotal, and the report stressed that the United States must be more concerned with regard to Iran and possession of nuclear weapons, and perhaps this explains the shift in his administration During the month of August 2004 in which he emphasized that Bush does not rule out military option against Iran if it failed to stop uranium, uranium, and with the possibility of war against Iran, the GCC will face a real dilemma. where that if the Gulf states a vested interest to get rid of the former Iraqi regime, either declared or that some others have not been announced, but it looks different for the case of Iran, which makes it difficult to predict the outcome of this work, whether pre-emptive strike or military-related operations, where they will be the six Gulf states immune from the implications of such These business leaders, and despite the fact that these countries is a strategic ally of the United States under the bilateral security agreements (excluding Saudi Arabia), it is unlikely that they provide facilities for the logistics of military operations against Iran, but it could push for a peaceful diplomatic solution , as the Gulf states by a large proportion of the Shiites, and then states that allow its territory to attack Iran has been subjected to terrorist operations, as happened during the Iraq war - Iran.
It should be emphasized that attitudes toward the Gulf off Iran from several considerations, not least because of mutual interests with Iran on the economic, political and cultural rights.
At the economic level: Despite the political differences between Iran and the Gulf States but that economic cooperation was one of the most important factor in the rapprochement between the two sides, those countries where it is the largest trading partners of Iran. Statistics indicate that the volume of trade exchange between Iran and Kuwait has $ 180 million in 2003, while no more than $ 40 million, and the volume of trade exchange between Saudi Arabia and Iran from 1218 million riyals in 2003 to two billion riyals during the in 2004, while the volume of trade exchange between the Kingdom of Bahrain and Iran reached in 2003 approximated to 68 million and 250 thousand dollars, but for the UAE Despite the existence of the dispute UAE - Iran on the issue of the three UAE islands, but the statistics indicate that the Iranian Arab Emirates United is the third most important markets for Iran, at the present time, as it is the fifth most important country in the provision to Iran of goods, recorded in 2003 trade between the two countries, the highest, reaching 16.10 billion dirhams (4.4 billion dollars), alent to 13.5% of the total exchange between Iran and the countries of the world and of 118.95 dirhams (32.5 billion dollars), as Iran is the most important markets for all of the UAE in the areas of import and re-export.
Not only the economic relations between the two sides of trade, where it began both Kuwait and Iran to consider a project to transfer water to Kuwait, Iran and pumping it through a 210 billion - gallons of fresh water suitable for drinking water per day through a pipeline stretching from Iran to fill Krnp area immediately in Kuwait through the waters of the Gulf, and this project will bring many economic benefits to both countries of Kuwait, providing new sources of drinking water to meet growing demand, as the project would offer to Iran to invest in water resources and provides optimum attract investment to Iran, as well as reduce dependence on oil and gas to increase revenues.
At the political level: despite the fact that relations with Iran - the Gulf has been strained since the Iranian revolution and the ensuing consequences, where the tension is a dominant feature of relations between the two, but that some Gulf states (Qatar and Oman) have maintained a strong relationship with Iran, especially the Strait of Hormuz and impose some of the privacy of military and security cooperation between Iran and Oman in particular and then, later joined by the State of Kuwait to a lesser extent, with the continued tense relations with the United Arab Emirates and to a lesser extent with Bahrain.
Then, saw the relations with Iran - the Gulf has improved significantly over the last two years for the rule of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who pursued a pragmatic policy based on achieving the national interests of Iran, to the periods of the rule of President Khatami, which saw a real shift in the relations between GCC states and Iran have seen the intensity of the interactions of political, economic, and with the inauguration of President Iran elect Ahmadinejad has stressed the need to \ "improve relations with neighboring countries, particularly the GCC