Turkish Perceptions and Nuclear Proliferation
Introduction
Turkey is a “middle power” in Eurasia and in the Middle East aspiring to become a regional power. Due to the complexity of its security environment, Turkey seeks protection from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) threats, Islamic fundamentalism endangering the Republic’s secularism, and ethnic separatism. From a systemic perspective, Turkey plays the role of an “insulator” for the European Union (EU) by isolating the complexity of the Middle Eastern security environment. Turkey also has a crucial position in the regional balance as a transit country in the Caspian energy corridor. It is argued that Turkish membership to EU would enhance the European security structure, as it would benefit from Turkey’s geopolitical position and military capabilities as a NATO member. Turkey serves to enhance European security vis-à-vis global terrorism and transnational threats. Wood and Quaisser write that Turkey is “an irreplaceable southeast flanking power, without whom a forward defence or security sphere for Europe would not be possible in the Eastern Mediterranean or Black Sea, not to mention the Middle East.”[1] At the same time, considering its regional security environment, Turkey’s realpolitik security characteristics are incompatible with European civilian-normative security measures based on soft power.[2] This is the milieu in which the Turkish security policy community operates. The purpose of this article is to examine how Turkish state and societal actors address the evolving threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.
U.S. efforts to prevent the development of a potential Iranian nuclear weapons program depend on Turkish cooperation. Turkey has expressed concern over Iran’s potential nuclear capabilities, as its neighbor would emerge as a regional hegemon, and spur various countries in the Middle East to develop nuclear deterrents of their own. The official Turkish state position on this potential threat is to pursue a diplomatic solution, and if need be, support coercive UN economic sanctions. A prevalent fear in Turkey is that military action against Iran could help consolidate the Iranian President’s political power, and could feed into his millenarian outlook, or in Ahmadinejad’s words as “the time for an apocalypse after which Islam will emerge triumphant.”[3]
According to the official statements by the Turkish General Staff, in order to achieve the global nonproliferation of WMD, Turkey supports the creation of a “WMD free” Middle East. A similar concept such as Middle East nuclear weapons-free zone (MENFZ) was promoted by former Iranian President Khatami, and a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ) was promoted by Egypt. However, most of its neighboring countries in the region have extensive interests in WMD proliferation; i.e. noncompliance with the international nonproliferation regimes and organizations, transfer of dual-use technologies, looseness of export controls and thus, threatening Turkish regional security interests.[4] The widespread acquisition of WMD in the Middle East has triggered and legitimized further nuclear aspirations. The Middle East has witnessed the militarization of its societies and economies, acquisition of massive conventional weapons arsenals, proliferation of ballistic missiles and WMDs, growth of military research and development as well as production. The greatest challenge emerging from the Middle East region that threatens international nonproliferation regimes is non-participation: Israel is the only state in the region not to sign the NPT. Algeria, Israel, and the Sudan have not signed the BWC. Egypt, Eritrea, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Syria have failed to sign the CWC. No state in the region except Turkey is a formal member of the MTCR.[5] In addition to Iranian nuclear ambitions, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has recently announced the need to develop nuclear energy.[6]
This article examines the Turkish views and threat perceptions of WMDs, particularly Iran’s potential to develop nuclear arms. The external actors include the United States and Iran, with a brief overview of relations with the EU. The domestic actors examined include the ruling AKP government, the various Turkish ministries and the military, and finally the secular and the pro-Islamist media. It will also analyze Turkish nuclear aspirations generated by its geopolitical position and examine the media coverage on Turkish perceptions of nuclear proliferation vis-à-vis U.S. relations and Iranian nuclear ambitions.