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قديم 31-10-09, 02:41 PM

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Myth of an Israeli strike on Iran


Give rise to I


srael through their media from time to time the possibility of directing an air strike Iranian nuclear re


actors, dealing with the press details of the plans developed by the Israeli Air Force to enable the bombing of Iran's nuclear program a lighting strike and a quick return.



The careful examination of the means and practical possibilities and logistics in addition to the various dimensions and the results of regional and political geography of this scenario, leads to a conclusion contrary, in the sense of nature failed and non-practical option for so-called \ "Osirak", was launched this description in the wake of the bombing of Israel's successful air to Iraq's nuclear reactor in the 1981.



In order not to forget, and although the full details of the Osirak did not reveal until now, the certain that Israeli fighter jets crossed the room air and at least one of the neighboring countries to gain access to Iraq to carry out their strike.



And to attack Iran's nuclear sites, multiple scattered across the country, especially in central Iran, this requires a long journey across the border, Israel's best option would be a blow complex real-time using different methods, for example, may take the attitude through Jordan and Iraq as well as via the Mediterranean Sea through Turkey or Azerbaijan, and without the need to mention \ "nightmare \" logistic support to long distance, this implies either the supplying of fuel or air Inzala in the middle.



At present, it is not an option available to Israel, and there is no immediate opportunity available in the near future, as Iran's relations with friendly neighbors and the fears of the Iranian response in the event of a sharp allowing the use of their airspace to launch an Israeli attack on Iran, preventing the access of this scenario.



Turkey, was a \ "strategic partner \" to Israel in the region, and has economic and diplomatic relations with Iran are excellent, while benefiting both from much heavy energy trade, as well as regional cooperation through the Organization for economic cooperation, and close public policy toward Iraq and \ "the Kurdish issue \ ". Therefore, regardless of their divergent political, Iran and Turkey \ "boast \" at present, stable, friendly relations are not likely to blow up an Israeli attack in Iran through Turkish ground.



Certainly, Turkey remains concerned about the nature of Iran's nuclear programs, though their leaders do not take the warning bell in Israel paranoid about \ "A nuclear Iran \" in the absence of any reliable intelligence information to substantiate this fear, has said recently, Israeli Major General Aharon Zaivi, that: \ "Iran is in fact not able to enrich uranium to build a nuclear bomb



But that prospect likely not to get an Israeli strike against Iran through Turkey to \ "escape \" the attention of Western media and military affairs, security and intellectuals who write about the military option \ "Osirak". For example, in his latest book, The Persian Puzzle, Kenneth Pollock declined appreciation Turkey's position in the case when discussing Israel's request to \ "option Osirik \", the same way, treat the investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, in his article in the magazine \ "New Yorker \" about a similar subject, and it was considered natural, because Turkey's close ties with both Israel and the United States , to turn Turkey into a launching pad for military attacks against Iran's nuclear installations!.



And confirm the low likelihood that this scenario \ "complicity of Turkey in an attack by Israel against Iranian nuclear sites \", the latest setback in Turkish-Israeli relations because of media leaks, which indicated that Israel has been training Kurdish groups are active in the region, Tel Aviv has rejected the accusation outright when Ankara has faced tough recently. Moreover, the relations of Turkey's EU membership may also be affected, and the opportunity for inclusion in the membership of the European Union may evaporate in the event that Turkey put themselves in the service of the United States and Israel in any military action is not supported by Europe



Thus, the \ "script \" Israeli use of its airspace against Iran, is unlikely to be achieved in the post-occupation Iraq



The same argument applies, with some differences, on the other neighbors of Iran, Azerbaijan, visited the new leader of Iran recently and assured Tehran that whatever the circumstances would not allow a foreign attack against Iran through Azerbaijan. In fact, compared with Turkey, Azerbaijan has the biggest fears the reaction of Iranian tough event of an attack by Israeli Caspian Sea states, and they looked forward to supporting Iran in its lawsuit to recover ground lost in the war with Armenia during the nineties.



As is the case with Azerbaijan, it seems now all the other Caucasian Asian doors closed in front of an Israeli attack on Iran, supported by the Russian army in the region and Moscow's opposition to any inherent Israeli plan to weaken the U.S. ally \ "reliable \", Iran. As for Pakistan, such as Turkey and Azerbaijan, has a personal interest more than necessary with Iran, covering - Iran - Afghanistan and the balance of power as well as India and Pakistan, among other things, not allowing itself to play a role supportive of the Israeli strike from Iran. The information was leaked by allowing Pakistan to U.S. special forces training at Peshawar to prepare for any intervention against Iran, but that this exercise is not necessarily directed against Iran, the strategic question, considerations overcome the situation of mutual suspicion between Tehran and Islamabad.



Remains for the \ "option Osirik \" one path, to pass through the Israeli strike Jordanian airspace and then Iraq before arriving in Iran, but it is unlikely to occur under an Iraqi government with a Shiite majority and degrading treatment.




EU position on the Iranian nuclear file


Worked Europe after the end of the cold war to restore its former influence in the Middle East, and in this conraised in 1994 the idea of a European bank in the Middle East to contribute to the development of relations with the European Economic Area; However, this idea that were never implemented, nor had other good European Union for a share in the management of the Middle East to the result.



The only way for European countries is: to work on the development of bilateral relations with any country in the Middle East, but the United States because of their influence on the systems of the region could easily fill this way.



It seems that the only independent state that can be adopted by the Europeans is: Iran, especially the emergence of \ "Mohammad Khatami \" in the political arena in 1997, and reforms in several foreign policy that included a dialogue of civilizations, has met with a warm welcome from European countries , the transformation of critical dialogue in which Europe had begun with Iran since 1992 to a constructive dialogue, and the visit \ "Khatami \" for a number of European countries, the signing of a number of important agreements with French companies in violation of the provinces of America - a guide for the warm bilateral relations, given to what has been said of Europe in the frame to have more influence in the Middle East and the transition to a force with international influence has adopted policies sometimes separate from the American policies in the region, particularly against Iran.



Given the attitudes of America and Iran; Europe is seeking to exploit this opportunity to have influence in the region, and what this opportunity more than anything other than the Iranian nuclear file. Has worked Europe, which was a key party in the dialogue with Iran's nuclear file is not up to the end; but in this regard, there were more than ever before, under U.S. pressure to take a decision on Iran's nuclear dossier in the Security Council.



It also said that EU countries do not want to escalate the situation with Iran economic relations between Europe and Tehran, and although there is no unified European position on foreign policy between the old and new Europe, according to the classification \ "Rumsfeld \" U.S. Secretary of Defense, the German and French position on the distinct Iran, has declared Paris to suspend uranium enrichment is a precondition for negotiations, the Iranian experience with France and Germany suggest that the imminent opening of the negotiations because of the Iranian role in the region, particularly in Lebanon, and France economic relations with Tehran and kept France on the American position.



And say \ "Yahya Abu Zakariya, \" no longer in Western capitals to hide deep resentment and annoyance ongoing Iranian nuclear project, which is haunted, especially with the insistence of the New Testament in Iran to move forward with the Iranian nuclear project; despite international objections, led by American and European objections .



And had tried to European capitals in its dealings with the Iranian nuclear file to distance itself from the American perspective, in how to deal with the Iranian nuclear file; it quickly matched the American perspective, with the European view, especially with the beginning of Iran's new President \ "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad \ "Speaking of Israel, and the need to remove it from the map, has reflected the insistence on activating the nuclear project and non-closure of the Bushehr nuclear plant on the Europeans, who are official statements of the nuclear as well as the nuclear declaration, launched by French President \" Jacques Chirac \ ", which threatened to bombed any State from which a terrorist act against France with nuclear bombs.



Western capitals were responsible for monitoring the Iranian nuclear file (France, Britain and Germany) working to contain this problem with the nuclear dimensions through diplomacy in an attempt to avoid a repeat of what happened in Iraq,



And sought the three countries that had been accredited by the European Community to persuade Tehran to abandon its resumption of nuclear research, has made some progress in the era of Mohammad Khatami, who was responsive to the demands of the European Community.



With the arrival of \ "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad \" to the presidency in Iran; changed European accounts to the fullest extent, to the extent that European officials speak constantly of their deep concern that Iran's resumption of nuclear research, this appeal has coincided with a tremendous amount of statements made by President The new \ "Ahmadinejad \" against Israel, which get a lot of sacredness to the Western capitals, which is guilt because of the direction of the Holocaust or the so-called Holocaust ..



Because these statements; most Western capitals summoned Iranian ambassadors accredited to it, had heard most of these ambassadors from the European foreign ministers strongly worded protests, and even European countries, calculated on the line of neutrality as Sweden and Norway annoyed by comments \ "Ahmadinejad \", informed the protest of the Iranian diplomats accredited to it ..



Western media has been successful and that Jewish control of the details in the link between the Iranian nuclear project and the desire to destroy Israel, and this information to the fullest extent succeeded in finding all the justification for the Jewish state if it took the destruction of the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr, just as it destroyed the reactor Iraqi nuclear \ "the Iraqi reactor \".



If the Europeans are convinced that they are denied Ithrko con**** and with the United States of America; they know that the Iranians are trying to bullying China and Russia, and the Union will move towards the Chinese and Russian axes to get Iran to comply with the will of the international embodied in America, and, Europeans fear that Iran turned to China and paid for the use of the veto within the Security Council if the Council discussed the implications of the Iranian nuclear file.



At the same time, the Europeans are afraid to the extent that the militarization of the solution being to deal with Iran's nuclear program because it would be the direct victim of such militancy; Therefore, even though Europe was compatible with America; they still prefer the political option; they learned the event a lot of Iraqi chapters are still coming.



The Turkish position on the Iranian nuclear program


There is no doubt that Iran's growing nuclear program, is still a lot of things that go on the international level is not right, but at the regional level as well. As is known, the interest in this program was launched after the declaration of the Iranian government since early September 2000, the success of the technical cadres in the launch of a new type of missile, the Shahab-3 missiles with ranges of up to 1500 km. While then-Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani said: "The rocket is designed to launch satellites, but were defined military experts said that the missile can be used for military purposes and able to carry nuclear warheads ... And in this article we will try to stand first at the dimensions of the Iranian nuclear program and then show him the position of Turkey.



First: The dimensions of the Iranian nuclear program


Frequently Asked most sources agree that the Iranian government thought that it would begin a nuclear program since the mid-seventies of the last century, Iran has signed an agreement on nuclear cooperation with France, under this agreement France has pledged to begin operations concentration of uranium. Iran's efforts did not stop at this, but widened to include the signing of the other nuclear cooperation agreement with Germany's Siemens whereby the latter company building two reactors southern city of Bushehr, Iran .. It seems that the conditions of the Islamic revolution and the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 prevented the completion of this project, since the program has stopped, or almost did, but the Iranian government has been able since between 1992 and 1995 approached China and Russia to start the development of Iran's nuclear capabilities, and so on, Iran has since that time has several nuclear power stations highlighted the Bushehr nuclear plant and Nuclear Technology Center in Isfahan and Tehran, Center for Nuclear Studies and the Department's nuclear research city of Yazd. And justify the reasons for the Iranian government by its attempt to develop a nuclear program of its wish to strengthen its regional and maintain national security, especially after the worsening News feet of Iraq in building nuclear capacity as well as the fact that Israel possesses a nuclear arsenal is huge.



And the Iranian nuclear project has encountered many obstacles, perhaps most notably with the U.S. position that Iran signed the Treaty on the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since 1968 and most of the reports of the IAEA Nuclear Energy Agency confirms Iran's commitment to the Treaty and is known as the United States as of this writing lines still seeks to prevent the arrival of the Iranian nuclear program to its objectives are sustained and the U.S. administration between the time and the latest diplomatic efforts to persuade Security Council members to stand against Iran's completion of its nuclear program, especially in the field of uranium enrichment and access to technology for making nuclear bombs. And talking circles of America, and especially the CIA since the mid-year 2002 that Iran has two nuclear facilities first uranium enrichment in Natanz and the second plant for producing heavy water near the city of Arak and both the facilities are located in central Iran .. Emphasizes the Americans that Iran could complete the nuclear fuel cycle and are therefore capable of making nuclear weapons.



Second: Turkey's position on the Iranian nuclear program


Iran's nuclear program raises the reactions and attitudes of Arab, regional and international mixed, and that concerns us here is to know the Turkish position on this program, and unfortunately we do not have a lot of information on this position, especially as Turkey, since the changes in the former Soviet Union and the socialist system of states , began pushing for the establishment of a nuclear reactor in the Gulf of Akoiyo southern Turkey, one of the ten plans to build nuclear reactors by the year 2020 .. Have indicated that Al-Hayat newspaper published in London in its issue of 11 May 1998 that Greenpeace is moving eight years ago to prevent Turkey from the establishment of the reactor The organization published a report in which risk is to build this plant on the surrounding countries, Turkey .. The newspaper Turkc Daily News (Turkish Daily News) article, the author said Viola Aozyrkan Fulya Ozerkan that Israeli Infrastructure Minister Ben-Eliezer warned that an agreement on energy between Turkey and Iran will work to encourage Iran in its readiness to develop its nuclear program .. Israeli minister has been criticized strongly cooperation agreement Turkey _ Iran on natural gas, saying: ((that progress in such projects working to encourage Tehran accused by the West of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons!!))



The Israeli minister says: ((that Iran poses a threat to stability in the Middle East, but is a danger to the whole world, this in addition to being a threat to stability in the Islamic world))



The United States criticized the Turkish move towards the signing of a cooperation agreement Turkey _ Iran, which took place last year (2007), said the Turkish move came at a time when Washington is seeking to impose tougher sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program .. The Turkish government responded to this, saying it aims, through its friendly relations with the countries of the Organization and the international community to promote a diplomatic approach to intensive will help, without doubt, to defuse nuclear tensions .. One official said the Turks involved the Iranian nuclear program: ((We are ready to pay the price for peace)) commented Ben-Eliezer, Israeli minister on that by saying: Turkey, it seems, wants to engage in a momentum to the efforts aimed at mitigating the growing clamor on Tehran's activities nuclear weapons.

 

 


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يقول احد القادة القدماء وهويخاطب جنوده . ( اذا لم تكونوا مستعدين للقتال من أجل ما تروه عزيزاً عليكم , فسوف يأخذه أحد ما عاجلا أو اَجلا , واذا كنتم تفضلوا السلام على الحرية فسوف تخسرونهما معاً , واذا كنتم تفضلوا الراحة والرخاء والسلام على العدل والحرية فسوف تخسروهما جميعا ) .

   

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